NOTICE
- DO NOT TRUST THE FOLLOWING
MOTIVATION
- what is "not likely" to happen?
- for example:
- sufficiently big wave would destroy reactor plant: likely to happen
- huge big wave may happen in certain period: likely to happen
- reactor plants used to go normally and seemed to be apart from catastrophe
- in other words, it seemed unlikely to happen in ex-ante
- another example:
- thermodynamically, one would never find ice in operating boiler: unlikely to happen
- one cannot imagine extremely non-equilibrium situation (intentionally or naturally) which enable ice exist in operating boiler
- in future days, technology might make it possible to keeping a piece of ice midst of burning fire
- another example:
- someday one might find an ever-unseen decay mode of well-known particle
- it might be a red alert to theorists
- it might be thought as a ever-hypothetical high energy (so rare) action and evidence of such excitation
- another example:
- someday we would form a new kind of business models which could be well understood as fitting better to new technological and social environment
KNOWN PITFALL OF PROBABILITY CALCULUS
- some unlikelihood turns out to be quite a likelihood from an wider viewpoint
- narrower, or ex-ante, view contrasts with wider, or ex-post, view
WHAT IS TECHNOLOGY?
- finer measurement and control
- higher energy time quanta
WHAT IS POLITICAL?
- political complication make things unpredictable
- just like as in turbulence, or in viscose vacua: too many causes contribute
- highly frictional universe is non-Newtonian: physicist of fishes should not be alike to Isaac Newton
- if galaxies think, they might think like fishes, unlike human
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